Monday, October 25, 2010

Deflation is more dangerous than Inflation !

Deflation is more dangerous that Inflation !

Economics is a simple science which is too complicated, said Churchill. This
statement is proved true today, with conflicting reports about inflation and

Inflation is measured using the WPI ( Whole Sale Price Index ). When
inflation becomes negative, it becomes deflation. For example, say WPI at
June 06,2007 was 200 and on June 06, 2008 was 220, then we say, inflation
was ten percent. If on June 06, 2009 the WPI was 231, then we say that
Inflation is five percent more than last year's.

On June 18, 2009, the Govt announced that India is under deflation.

If deflation is prolonged, then it is very dangerous, more dangerous than
inflation. It will engender crisis and recession. More than prices falling,
it is the expectation that prices will fall, that is more dangerous. If
consumers believe that prices will fall furthur, investment decisions will
be delayed. My friend was saying he will not buy a flat of 80 lakhs now, as
he will get it for 40 lakhs after two years. Consumer judges that it is a
Bear Phase and will not invest and will wait for prices to fall. Let it be
Stock Market or Realty, the intelligent will only enter at the end of the
Bear Phase and not at the beginning. !

Inflation is the phase where the prices of products and services go up in a
bullish curve and Deflation is the phase where the prices of products and
services go down in a bearish curve !

The prices of some commodities - particularly foodstuffs - are rising during
even the deflationary phase. The Wholesale Price Index is based on 430
commodities. Ordinary people are bothered only about the prices of
foodstuffs, rice, sugar, wheat, fish, vegetables etc. The prices of copper,
coal, aviation fuel etc, ( which is also included in the 430 commodities )
are something the common man is not bothered about. The common man does not
benefit when the price of aviation fuel comes down. But the prices of
foodstuffs do not come down and this explains why prices of some commodities
are rising during deflation.

Now this inexplicability is resolved when everything is based on the CPI,
the Consumer Price Index.

The Wholesale Price Index on June 06, 2008 was 236.5 and on June 06, 2009
was 232.7 and hence Deflation is 1.61%.

Now Consumer Price Index can be followed as it highlights the prices of
essential commodities and if we follow the CPI, we have an inflation at 8% !
Inflation was 11% when oil was ruling at 140 dollars per barrel. The
inflation of today is merely a statistical aberration.

People will delay their buying during Deflation. During inflation, when
people thought price of rice was bound to go up, they bought heavy
quantities of rice. Now the reverse phenomenon will happen during deflation.
The buying of rice, wheat, medicines etc which are essential will be
deferred. There will be less demand. The manufacturers will have to slash
down output. There will be retrenchment of employees as business becomes
slack, unemployment will rise and the whole economy will be affected

From 1990-1996, Japan was under deflation. The World Financial Crisis is
here to stay. Global economic deflation is at 2%. Global income will come
down 2%. In Japan, Singapore, Dubai and Russia income will come down by 8%.
Of the G 20 countries, only India and China has recorded good growth. In
2009, China will grow by 7% and India by 6%.

Now India has grown by 5.8% during this global recessionary phase and this
shows the resilience of the nation. The export sector has become weak. But
then the industries led by consumer demand like steel, cement, cars, two
wheelers do not face recession at all. We can expect a 6% growth this
fiscal, if no adverse factors hit us. There should not be any deflation in
an economy with more than 4% growth, according to Economics. Even if
deflation hit us, it will only be a temporary phenomenon.

Whether Inflation or Deflation is more dangerous is an interesting debate in
Economics. High inflation and prolonged Deflation are equally dangerous. For
a developing country like India, moderate inflation is ideal. A 3% inflation
is ideal and necessary for a healthy Indian economy.

The resurrection of the primary market

The IPO market is back in action. It was more or less dead after 2008, when
the market fell sharply. This year 2 companies had cancelled their IPOs due
to bad market conditions in February.

Mahindra Holidays and Resorts is coming with an IPO on June 23. 92.66 lakh
shares are the initial public offering.

The Sensex is at 14.5 K levels. One wonders whether this rise has anything
to do with the IPOs which are going to come to the market !

The Fourfold Yoga - The Science of the Superconscient 1

Yoga is derived from the word "Yuj" which means to unite.
Union with Cosmic Creative Intelligence is the aim of Yoga.
The Fourfold Yoga has been prescribed for Cosmic Union in
Oriental Philosophies. They are
1. Union via Action ( Karma Yoga ) 2. Union via Psychic
Control ( Raja Yoga ) 3. Union via Universal Love ( Bhakthi
Yoga ) 4. Union via Wisdom ( Jnana Yoga )
Union via Action is for the person of active temparament.
Union via Psychic Contro is for the person of adventurous
temparament Union via Universal Love is for the person of
emotional temparament. Union via Wisdom is for the person
of intellectual temparament.
These four paths are not different from one another. They
are all part of the Fourfold Yoga.
Certain qualities are to be inculcated in the seeker if he
is to achieve the Ultimate Goal.
Prajna has been defined as the discriminative intellect.
When the intellect discriminates between the Real & the
Unreal. The intellect which discriminates between Being and
Non-Being. This quality should be incorporated by the
Intellectual Man if he is to progress in the path of Jnana
Love is defined as the greatest of all the positive
qualities of man. This quality is to be incorporated by the
Emotional Man if he is to progress in the field of Bhakthi
Control of Mind or Psychic Control through Raja Yoga should
be incorporated by the Adventurous Man if he is to progress
in the field of Raja Yoga.
Selfless Service should be incorporated by the Active Man if
he is to progress in the field of Karma Yoga.
In other words, since the Fourfold Yoga has been prescribed
for mankind , all these four great qualities - Selfless
service, love, psychic control & the discriminative
intellect should be incorporated by the spiritual aspirant
to develop in the field of Yoga.
Yoga was defined by Aurobindo as a methodic process towards
self-perfection through a development of the latent
potential at the five levels of Being - physical, vital,
mental, intellectual & spiritual. Normal man lives only in
the first three sheaths - physical, vital & mental. Only
when we use our hidden spiritual potential - the
intellectual & the bliss sheaths - can be unfold our full
mental potential.
The Seven States of Consciousness
Man lives in 3 relative states of Consciousnes- waking,
dreaming & Dreamless sleep known in Sanskrit as Jagrata,
Swapna & Sushupti. Now there is a Transcendental state of
Consciousness known as the Fourth ( Tureeya ) & there are
still higher states of Consciousness.
These are the seven states
1 .Waking 2. Dreaming ( REM sleep ) 3. Dreamless Sleep (
non- REM ) 4. Transcendental Consciousness ( T C) 5.
Cosmic Consciousness ( C C ) 6. Glorified State of Cosmic
Consciousness ( G C ) 7. Unified State of Cosmic
Consciousness ( U C )
In his Phd Thesis "The physiological effects of
Transcendental Meditation, a Proposed Fourth Major state of
Consciousness " Dr Robert Keith Wallace proved the existence
of a fourth major state of Consciousness ( T C ).
Cosmic Consciousness is a state where TC & the 3 relative
states coexist.

What is Surveillance Science?

Surveillance by its nature is an intuitive art, however there are scientific components that need to be mastered in order to accentuate the artistic element and become a surveillance professional.  The basic equipment necessary to implement a surveillance project as a private investigator working on behalf of a client for a legitimate reason are pre- surveillance data, binoculars, video camcorder and a good attitude. Auxiliary equipment can include maps, cell phone, global navigation system and global positioning system tracking. The following seven points are helpful in conducting surveillance activities:-

  1. Pre-surveillance information is paramount to the effectiveness of the surveillance. It will determine how it is devised, determining the best times, locations, methods, risks, etc., associated with case.
  2. Proper assessment and preparation of the equipment necessary for the project. All equipment should be double checked for functioning, adequate battery power and having extra batteries and other accessories available as needed.
  3. If the case requires mobile surveillance, vehicles should be in optimum working condition, all fluids at maximum reservoir level, good tire pressure, windshield clean and steps taken to reduce the vehicle occupant being seen. Depending on the laws in the jurisdiction, window tinting, using a curtain behind the front seats, etc. are basic steps to accomplish the objective.
  4. A non-descriptive vehicle is helpful. A vehicle that is common and consistent with the neighborhood in terms of make and model. There should be no physical damage or alteration that would make the vehicle stand out or attract unsolicited attention.
  5. A pedestrian surveillance is more inclined to require multiple investigators to be successful and requiring covert methods of communication to coordinate and maintain the observation. Being relaxed, yet alert is necessary and not bringing undue attention to oneself through manner of dress, body language and visibility of communication or covert video capturing devices.
  6. Being patient. Unfortunately, it is a requirement, although not scientific. It can determine the effectiveness of all the other components.
  7. There is always another day, hopefully. This is also not scientific, but do not compromise the surveillance because of eagerness, taking unnecessary chances or impatience. The investigation can be continued another time as long as the subject does not know you are out there, the budget allows it or the window of opportunity has not closed.

The actual methods used to implement the art and science of surveillance is completely dependent on the case parameter and the investigator’s competency. It is a product of logging multiple surveillance hours under various conditions and finding what works for you and what you are comfortable doing. All the other components provide a frame work and tools of assistance, but a successful surveillance operation is contingent on a combination of these and the indispensible skill of the professional surveillance investigator.

Some latest studies found that the moon was too dry to sustain lives.

According to the reports of British media, sharply comparing with the prior reports that water existed on the moon, British scientists recently discovered that the moon might be quite dry.
The study was published in Magazine Science. The U.S. researchers have gone through chlorine isotope analysis of the samples brought back to Earth by the "Apollo" for many times. They found the sea of magma during the formation of the Moon was of no or almost no hydrogen, which meant that the Moon might be too dry to sustain life.
Dr. Sharp from University of New Mexico was responsible for this study. According to one of the theory of the formation of moon, several billion years ago, a Mars-sized object collided with the young Earth, and led to the formation of moon. After that, till about 45 billion years ago, the Moon cooled and come into being. There were so-called molten rocks on the lunar surface which was able to contain a lot of water. Dr. Sharp said: "As the Earth's cooling and forming, the volcanic gases appeared whose steam might form lots of the marines. Our marine came from the water dissolved in the rock. The same thing could happen on the moon, but the moon is too small with too weak gravity to keep the water. "
At the initial stage, the geologist didn’t find any evidence of water when they studied the samples brought back by "Apollo" space mission. Hence they declared that no water existed on the moon. However, in recent years, the scientists re-examined these rocks and reached a different conclusion. Earlier in 2010, an American research team led by Francis Michael studied the apatite in the lunar rocks again. And they found that compared with the previous estimation, the water contained in the lunar rocks was at least 100 times more than that. In addition, Indian lunar satellite also found the thick arctic ice deposits. However, Sharp pointed out that these sediments might come from a comet hitting the lunar surface

How to Make People Like You in 30 Second

Some pretentious person would say that only a few minutes to let other people like me. But whether is it too long in minutes? Actually, from the psychological aspects, it just needs 30 seconds to make a person like you.

The crux of getting the recognition from others is the first 30 seconds on the first meeting, and whether could conquer a people also depend on this half a minute. Though everyone could not overcome the preconceived stereotypes, people ought to fastidious about some skills when see each other for the first time.


If you really sincere want to communicate with the people at first meeting, you should be sure to you are there earlier. A person who arrived at the date place earlier will be not hated by other usually. This is not only a kind of respect, but also a little of initial stress for the other. The facts verify that this people will be easy to agree your request for his feeling of guilt.

Line of Sight

The science shows that the people who choose to withdraw his eyes from others will be more powerful when directly eye contact. People have this kind of psychological inertia: focus eyes usually represent a psychological sense of identity, on the contrary, suddenly move the sight would mean to interrupt this sense of identity and the other people will immediately feel a kind of pressure then think "Is he not interested in my words?"

Therefore, for those wise, they are always good at using vision to control the situation. If he wants to disrupt the other's position, he will always move his sight earlier and show pressure to the other. However, if he wants to pretend sympathy, he will stable his eyes. Of course, people should control the time, and it will be treated as lured or provocative if intersect for long time.


Smile is really important. Some people have a very beautiful smile, but his smile can't get peace of other's mind. So at first meeting, clear, frank laugh and sweet smile will be better. Because people ought to not make people feel a sense of psychological burden and let the other person feel that you have not too much of request so that can accept you easily.

The Food and Drug Administration

The Food and Drug Administration, long focused on judging the effectiveness and safety of drugs in the body.

Is considering requiring more tests for their possible effects on the environment, agency officials said yesterday.

The officials said the environmental side of the drug-approval process, which was cut back in 1997, will probably be re-evaluated in light of a federal survey of streams that found traces of a host of medications, excreted by people and livestock that were not captured by sewage treatment plants.

"We're looking very carefully at this data and aren't ruling it the fact that we may have to make changes," said Dr. Steven Gilson, deputy director of the F. D. A. Center for Drug Evaluation and Research.

The survey of more than 100 waterways downstream from treatment plants and animal pasture in 30 states found minute amounts of dozens of antibiotics, hormones, pain killers, disinfectants and other products. It is not known whether they are harmful to plants, animals or people.

Additional federal studies are under way to see if any administration reaches taps or ground water used for drinking, but the program order which they are conducted, the toxic substances hydrology program of the geological survey, is designated to be eliminated under budget: us proposed by the Bush administration, government officials said.

The $ 14-million-a-year program was created in the Reagan administration, and its later is used by many state agencies and federal scientists. The Bush administration has instead proposed providing $ 10 million a year to the National Science Foundation for water quality studies.

Federal officials, drug company scientists and private environment) campaigners all said yesterday that the Geological Survey program provided the first comprehensive concrete data on levels of antibiotics, hormones and other drugs in American waterways.

Many of these substances fall through regulatory cracks because they are not defined as pollution under clean-water laws, and they are not all checked for environmental effects by the food and drug agency.

In 1997, the F. D. A. followed Clinton administration efforts streamline many regulations and greatly reduced the number of drugs for which environmental assessments were required. A review of hundreds of previous drug assessments turned up no instances where the compounds, once out of their body, had an adverse effect, agency officials said

The Kind of Watch I Dream of

Nowadays, science and technology is developing in an astonishing speed and out of our expectation. When we go to shops or surf the internet after a period of time, we usually find various new things have come into being.

As for me, I especially like electronic things which give me much convenience and fun. For example, when I get up in the morning, I usually turn on the computer to surf the internet, communicate with friends, do part-time jobs on line, learn knowledge and etc; when I go out, I will put my keys, mobile phone and MP4 into my handbag and put on my watch around my wrist.

These things are indispensable to me. Without keys, I could not enter my home; without the phone, I could not communicate with friends, colleagues and other people and would lose much important information as well as many chances; without MP4, I would not feel relaxed for sometimes I have some boring periods of time and depend on it to give me fun and information; without watch, it is not convenient to grasp the time. Of course, we can get to know time from our mobile phones and MP4, but they are usually in our bags or pockets and inconvenient for us to see the time.

In addition, to me, I prefer listening to news and programs from foreign radio stations through short waves. However, the MP4 and mobile phone usually just have FM and can not receive such programs. It is troublesome to take a radio out for it is comparatively big.

Therefore, I really dream to have a type of watch that has all the functions mentioned above. Then, when I want to surf the net or do other things that have to do on computer, I could do this on the watch at any time and at any place; when I go out, besides other necessary things, I only need to wear a watch; when I want to go into or out of my home, I could open the door just by stretching my wrist near it; when I want to communicate with other people, I could just speak to or operate the watch; when I need relax myself, I could just do this by putting my wrist near ears. Of course, it had better have short waves to receive signals from foreign radio stations.

Is there such a watch now? If not, how long such a watch could come into this world